Classic NFL Betting Strategies by Jeff Haney

A classic NFL wagering strategy advises betting against the previous years' Super Bowl winner early in the following regular season. Not only will the point spreads in those games be artificially inflated because of the hype surrounding the champ, according to the strategy, but the Super Bowl winner's opponents will be especially motivated to score an upset. It's time to put this theory to rest.

In his superb 2001 book "Sharp Sports Betting," gambling authority Stanford Wong reported the strategy was a consistent money-earner from 1985 to 2000. Betting against the champion in the season's first six weeks yielded a record of 52-36-1 against the point spread in that period, according to Wong's research.

Since then, however, the theory has been a consistent money-burner, probably because the sports betting marketplace caught up with and adjusted to the trend. Since 2001, it has yielded a record of 14-15-1 against the spread.

Opening betting lines on the Super Bowl champ Pittsburgh Steelers' early games seem to confirm the theory has lost its luster. The Las Vegas Hilton sports book, as it does annually, has posted betting lines on eighty NFL "games of the year," five each week from Weeks two through seventeen for early wagering.

Before the lines were temporarily taken off the board due to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's motorcycle crash, the Steelers had been installed as an underdog in two early "games of the year." That's some inflated line.

Pittsburgh was a 1-point underdog against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sept. 18 and a 2-point underdog to the San Diego Chargers on Oct. 8.

Lines on the Steelers games are expected to be re-posted when Roethlisberger's status becomes clearer.

July 14, 2006
Posted By Susan Torres
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