Perhaps Las Vegas Sportsbooks Should Be Responsible For BCS Polls?

The BCS system in college football is receiving criticism once again. After sliding by the past couple of years unscathed, the system is now back in the spotlight for getting things all wrong.

One expert believes that he has the answer. "Put the Las Vegas sportsbooks in charge of ranking the teams before handing out BCS bowl invitations," says gaming statistician Lon Rugley.

On the surface, Rugley's idea is easily dismissed, but having further looked at his findings, as crazy as it may seem, he might be on to something.

Rugley's main point hinges on the idea that Las Vegas sportsbooks have been taking peoples money for years by accurately predicting outcomes of games. It is true that their point spreads come mainly from public opinion, but that only holds true in big games.

The sportsbooks put out lines on games that most people do not even know are taking place on any given Saturday. They could put a betting line on Yale and Dartmouth, and many times their point spreads will accurately show the power of the two teams.

The critics to Rugley's theory will point to the amount of upsets that happen and how sportsbooks incorrectly judged those games. On the contrary, however, is that sportsbooks most of the time have a knowledge that the underdog will win before they even step on the field.

"These sportsbooks have millions of dollars riding on their decisions on point spreads. What does the BCS have at stake if they get it wrong? nothing," said Rugley.

Again a valid point. Sportsbooks stand to lose with every line that they put out. That is why only the best in the business survive. The people that are making these betting lines know more about the teams that are playing than the teams themselves.

One sportsbook executive that we contacted for this story, gushed when asked about the idea of them being in charge of making sure the right two teams play for the national championship every year.

"We could do it. On a yearly basis, we could take the analysis that goes into making point spreads and use that to rank the top twenty five teams in the country after the conference championship games," said the executive who wished to remain anonymous.

Then why not. Well, that answer is simple. There is too much politicking that goes on in the NCAA. They are not searching for the best solution to a problem they do not think exists. "The most influential universities are making all of the big money from the BCS system, why would they want to change that," said Ryan Leafter,a student at a PAC Ten school.

They may not want to hear the answer, but it certainly would have made for a better game than Florida and Oklahoma gave us on Thursday night.

The ironic part of Rugley's idea? In compiling his evidence for his study, he asked several of the top sports handicappers in Las Vegas who would have been the top choice to play for the title this year before the bowl games began. The most common answer he received? Utah against Florida.

January 10, 2009
Posted By Vincent Tapoglia III
Staff Editor, CasinoGamblingWeb.com
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