Super Bowl Betting Driven By Public Opinion, Not Facts

It is up to Las Vegas sportsbooks to create a betting line on each game that will try to get bettors to gamble on both sides of the game. This year, that figure in the Super Bowl is seven points.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by seven points over the Arizona Cardinals, but that does not prove that sportsbooks are only basing the line on public opinion. The next fact might.

RJ Bell of pregame.com has released an interesting bit of information about other teams in the NFL that would have been favored over the Cardinals had they been playing in this game.

"Sportsbooks accept millions of dollars of bets based upon their opinion, which they hold in a higher regard than the outcome of the NFL playoff system," said Bell.

The Philadelphia Eagles are a team that jumps out on his list. The Eagles were beaten by Arizona last weekend, but sportsbooks still believe more gamblers would have bet on Philly in the rematch. The fact is that Arizona is the better team after beating the Eagles. The gambling opinion is that Philly is the better team.

The next team that would have been favored over the Cards, according to Bell, is Carolina. Yeah, that is the same Carolina team that Arizona smoked on their home field to get to the NFC Championship game. Again, perception wins out over reality in the world of professional gambling.

Teams that draw a lot of gambling interest but did not perform on the field in the playoffs such as the Giants, Chargers, and Colts would also have put Arizona in an underdog role. Just for good measure, two other playoff teams, Tennessee and Baltimore, were thrown into the mix as well.

If that is not disrespectful enough, two teams that did not even make the playoffs would have been favored over Arizona. If the Dallas Cowboys and their circus was in Tampa, they would be favored, and the New England Patriots, the darlings of gamblers, would also have been favored.

Sportsbooks have their own system of ranking how good a team is, it is a public opinion poll without having to conduct the poll. We wrote here a couple of weeks ago that perhaps sportsbooks should be responsible for the NCAA rankings, claiming they have a better grasp on public opinion than anyone else.

They are not always right, but they have not been operating as a full proof industry for decades because they are wrong often. What they are saying about this Super Bowl is that the glass slipper that Arizona is wearing has to be given back, and that will occur on Super Bowl Sunday.

January 21, 2009
Posted By Tom Jones
Staff Editor, CasinoGamblingWeb.com
Submit News!

NFL Super Bowl Betting Line Not Expected To Move Much
NBA Picks: Kobe And Lakers Or LeBron And Cavaliers?
Super Bowl Gambling Odds: Steelers Favored By Seven Over Cardinals
NFL Betting: Will The Steelers And Ravens Score A Touchdown?
NFC Title Game Gambling Odds Holding Steady As Game Approaches